With strong macroeconomic fundamentals, the Indian economy was well-placed on trajectory of high growth rate in early 2020 when outbreak of coronavirus epidemic in China was reported. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the epidemic as a pandemic, plunging the world into an unprecedented medical crisis. When countrywide lockdown was announced from March 25, 2020, most of the economic activities came to a grinding halt in urban areas. However, rural India continued to be normal in view of the exemption from restrictions allowed to farmers to conduct farming operations, including harvesting and transporting their produce to grain markets with the general conditions of face covering, hand hygiene and social distancing. These exemptions helped to maintain continuity in supply chain, especially in view of harvesting and sowing season. To deal with the economic challenges caused by the pandemic, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the creation of ‘COVID-19 Economic Response Task Force’ under the Union Finance Minister. Similarly, PM CARES Fund was created to deal with any kind of emergency or distress situation. On May 12, 2020, the Prime Minister announced Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (Self-reliant India Initiative) which combined relief, policy reforms and fiscal and monetary measures to help businesses and individuals to cope with the situation created by COVID-19 pandemic. A mega package of ` 20 lakh crore (10 percent of GDP) was announced for the purpose. India has several strengths that can help mitigate the adverse effects of COVID-induced slowdown. Agricultural sector is vibrant, inflation is under control, foreign exchange reserves (more than US$ 500 billion) are at record level, international crude oil prices are low and a robust social security net is in place. There is, therefore, a silver lining for India to bounce back and a strong case for fast-tracking the pending reforms. CONTENTS 1. Pre- and Post-COVID World Economy 1.1 Pre-COVID World Economy 1.2 Post-COVID World Economy 2. Pre- and Post-COVID Indian Economy 2.1 Pre-COVID Indian Economy 2.2 Post-COVID Indian Economy 3. India’s US$ 5 Trillion Economy Dream Shattered 3.1 Twelve Champion Services Sectors 3.2 Blueprint for the 5 Trillion Dollar Economy 4. Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (Self-reliant India Initiative) 4.1 First Tranche Focused on MSMEs 4.2 Second Tranche for Poor and Middle Class 4.3 Third Tranche for Farming Sector 4.4 Fourth Tranche for Privatization of the Economy 4.5 Fifth Tranche Focused on MGNREGS 4.6 Assessment of Aatmanirbhar Bharat Package 5. Favourable Factors for Indian Economy to Rebound 5.1 The Resilient Agricultural Sector 5.2 Low Crude Oil Prices 5.3 China’s Loss Can be India’s Gain 5.4 Strong Diversified Manufacturing Base 5.5 Demographic Dividend 5.6 Preferred Destination for Investment 5.7 IT and IT-enabled Services 5.8 India Recognized as Economic Powerhouse 5.9 Burgeoning Foreign Exchange Reserves 5.10 Summary of Strengths of the Indian Economy 6. Robust and Resilient Agricultural Sector 6.1 Why is Agricultural Sector Important for India? 6.2 Components of Agriculture and Allied Sectors 6.3 COVID-19 and Agricultural Sector 6.4 Doubling Farmers Income by 2022-23 6.5 Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) in Fertiliser Sector 6.6 Remunerative Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) 6.7 Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojna (PMFBY) 6.8 Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) 6.9 Pradhan Mantri Kisan Maandhan Yojana (PMKMY) 7. Crude Oil Prices and India 7.1 Segments and Stakeholders in Petroleum Industry 7.2 Crude Oil and Petroleum Products 7.3 Natural Gas and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) 7.4 Crude Oil: Indigenous Production and Imports 7.5 What Determines Global Crude Oil Prices? 7.6 COVID-19, Worldwide Lockdowns and Fall in Crude Oil Prices 7.7 Impact of Global Crude Oil Prices on India 7.8 Future Scenario 8. Ease of Doing Business in India: Recent Improved Rankings 8.1 Why is it Difficult to Do Business in India? 8.2 World Bank’s Doing Business Report 8.3 Highlights of Doing Business Report, 2020 8.4 Doing Business Ranking of India in Recent Years 8.5 High, Moderate and Low Rank Indicators of India 8.6 Reforms Introduced in India as per Doing Business Reports of World Bank: 2008 to 2020 8.7 Recent Measures to Improve Business Environment in India 9. Infrastructure and Logistics Development 9.1 Infrastructure Services 9.2 Logistics Services and Support 10. Skill Development, Innovations and Entrepreneurship 10.1 Skill Development 10.2 Innovations 10.3 Entrepreneurship 11. Digitization of the Indian Economy 11.1 India and Information Technology (IT) Services 11.2 World Digital Competitiveness Ranking, 2019 11.3 India’s E-payment Ranking in Global Survey 11.4 Digital Transactions: India versus Other Countries 11.5 Cyber Security 12. India’s Social Security Net 12.1 Global Hunger Index (GHI), 2019 and India 12.2 Three-tier Universal Security System for the Poor 12.3 LPG and Kerosene for the Poor 12.4 Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) 12.5 Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyan. 12.6 Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) Programme 13. Role of Government in the Changed Scenario 13.1 Lessons from Financial Crises of 2008 13.2 Fiscal Deficit is not a Sacred Cow 13.3 Effective Public-Private Dialogue 13.4 Electronics: A Grey Area 13.5 Empowerment of Marginalised Groups 13.6 Governance and Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), 2018 14. Challenges Ahead 14.1 Integration of Indian Economy with Global Economy 14.2 Rejection of Decoupling Hypothesis 14.3 Global Economic Crises Are Contagious 14.4 The China Factor 14.5 India’s Falling Competitiveness Ranking 15. Economic Impact of Lockdowns 15.1 Covid-19 and Lockdowns 15.2 Fall in Government Revenues 15.3 Lockdowns and Agricultural Sector 15.4 Low Crude Oil Prices 15.5 China’s Loss Can be India’s Gain 15.6 India’s as Preferred Destination for Foreign Investment 15.7 Diversified Industrial and Infrastructural Base of India Appendix: Reforms Introduced in India as per Doing Business Reports of World Bank: 2008 to 2020 Bibliography Index