The Indian Council of World Affairs regularly brings out insightful and quality research articles in the form of Issue Briefs and View Points on major political, security and economic trends and developments in Asia, Africa, Europe, the United States, Latin America, Oceania and the wider global geostrategic and economic environments. These research articles contribute to foreign policy debates and discussions on a regular basis. This publication ICWA Global Review 2022 comprising research papers by the Research Faculty of ICWA focuses on global and regional developments in the year 2022. The articles capture the key developments in various geographies, their impact and implications. ICWA About the ICWA: The Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA) was established in 1943 by a group of eminent intellectuals led by Sir Tej Bahadur Sapru and Dr. H.N. Kunzru. Its principal objective was to create an Indian perspective on international relations and act as a repository of knowledge and thinking on foreign policy issues. The Council today conducts policy research through an in-house faculty as well as through external experts. It regularly organises an array of intellectual activities including conferences, seminars, roundtable discussions, lectures and brings out a range of publications. It has a well-stocked library, an active website and publishes the journal India Quarterly. ICWA has over 50 MoUs with international think tanks and research institutions to promote better understanding on international issues and develop areas of mutual cooperation. The Council also has partnerships with leading research institutions, think tanks and universities in India. Contents Preface Contributors IMAPCT AND IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS European Responses to the Ukraine Crisis Ankita Dutta Ukraine Crisis and its Implications Himani Pant Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Implications for Central Asian Countries Punit Gaur Gulf Responses to the Ukraine Crisis Lakshmi Priya Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Food Security Challenge in WANA Region Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui The crisis in Ukraine and Russia’s engagement with Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba Arnab Chakrabarty The Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Global Food Security Sankalp Gurjar Ukraine Crisis: Evolving European Security Architecture Ankita Dutta Southeast Asia and the Ukrainian Crisis Sripathi Narayanan Crisis in Ukraine and Japan-Russia Relations Jojin V. John Europe’s Energy Security in the Aftermath of Ukrainian Crisis Ankita Dutta Current Situation in Ukraine and its Impact on Russian Foreign Policy Himani Pant Implications of Iranian Drones in Ukraine Lakshmi Priya INDO-PACIFIC India’s Outreach to Indian Ocean Islands Amidst Dynamic Strategic Environment Pragya Pandey Maldives-Australia: Budding Indo-Pacific Cooperation Samatha Mallempati Contextualising the Presidential Fleet Review and Exercise Milan Sripathi Narayanan Expanding the Strategic Envelope: Indo-Pacific, Africa and Shinzo Abe Sankalp Gurjar The United States and the Pacific Island Countries Stuti Banerjee Sabre-Rattling in the Taiwan Strait: Implications for the Indo-Pacific Region Teshu Singh ASEAN and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Temjenmeren Ao ASEAN’s Approach to the Indo-Pacific Temjenmeren Ao Canada Embraces the Indo-Pacific with a Formal Strategy Pragya Pandey China’s First Indian Ocean Region Forum and its Growing Assertiveness in the Region Pragya Pandey Growing German Engagement in the Indo-Pacific Tarveen Kaur SOUTH ASIA Afghan Civil Society and Western officials held Talks with Taliban delegation in Oslo Anwesha Ghosh Sri Lanka’s Post-War Reconciliation: Rising Concerns Samatha Mallempati What led to the Economic Crisis in Pakistan? Rahul Nath Choudhury Pakistan National Security Policy: An Assessment Dhrubajyoti Bhattacharjee India sends Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan via Pakistan Anwesha Ghosh The Crisis in Sri Lanka: Stalemate Continues Samatha Mallempati Is China looking for a Greater Role in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan? Anwesha Ghosh Taliban’s Quest for Legitimacy Continues Kaushik Nag Political Developments in Sri Lanka Amidst the Economic Crisis Samatha Mallempati Afghan Taliban mediate Ceasefire between Pakistan and Pakistani Taliban Anwesha Ghosh India’s Initiatives following a Deadly Earthquake in Afghanistan Anwesha Ghosh Developments in Sri Lanka: A Bleak Economic and Political Future? Samatha Mallempati One Year since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan Anwesha Ghosh Maldives: Exploring a Greater Role in the Region Samatha Mallempati Pakistan’s exit from the FATF ‘grey list’: Implications for Global Counter-Terrorism Efforts and for Islamabad Shrabana Barua Long-standing Border Dispute and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Reignite Tensions between Taliban and Pakistan Anwesha Ghosh Post July 2022 Developments in Sri Lanka: Economy and Politics Samatha Mallempati Growing Power Cooperation in South Asia Kaushik Nag SOUTHEAST AND EAST ASIA China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor: An Assessment Sudeep Kumar China-Philippines South China Sea Dispute, PCA Award and Post-Arbitral Relations Mudassir Qamar China’s Economic Challenges and Priorities for 2022 Sanjeev Kumar The Upcoming Elections in the Philippines Temjenmeren Ao ASEAN’s Myanmar Dilemma Sripathi Narayanan China’s Central Asia Summit Sanjeev Kumar North Korea: A Decade under Kim Jong-un Jojin V. John South Korean Presidential Election: Between Practical and Predictable Foreign Policy Jojin V. John China-Japan Relations and the Taiwan Issue Sudeep Kumar State of the Economy in Southeast Asia Temjenmeren Ao China’s New Artifice: Global Security Initiative Teshu Singh EAM’s Visit to Europe: Impressions from China Sanjeev Kumar Philippines under a new Administration led by Marcos Jr Temjenmeren Ao Shinzo Abe’s Legacy and India-Japan Relations Sudeep Kumar India’s Military Diplomatic Engagement with Southeast Asia Sripathi Narayanan One Year of China’s Global Development Initiative: High on Rhetoric, Low on Substance? Sanjeev Kumar China’s 20th Party Congress and ‘Party Building’ Project Sanjeev Kumar South Korea-Japan Reconciliation in Sight Amidst the North Korean Threat Tunchinmang Langel Outlook on South Korea and Vietnam’s Progression towards a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” Tunchinmang Langel Veracity of Chinese Overseas Police Stations Teshu Singh Significance of Japan’s New National Security Strategy 2022 Tunchinmang Langel WEST ASIA Morocco becomes the First Arab State to Sign an open Defence Agreement with Israel Arshad Changing Dynamic of Turkey - Arab Relationship: An Overview Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui Implications of Houthi Drone and Missile Attacks on the UAE Lakshmi Priya Why Libya Failed to Conduct Presidential Election in December 2021 ? Arshad Resumption of the Iran Nuclear Deal Talks(JCPOA)–Assessment of the European Role Akanksha Thakur What India gains from trade deal with Australia and the UAE? Rahul Nath Choudhury India and UAE Fostering Economic Ties through CEPA Lakshmi Priya Lebanon Elections: An Assessment Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui Riyadh’s ‘Balancing Act’ in the WANA Region Lakshmi Priya The Past, Present and Future of the Abraham Accords Delma Joseph President Biden’s West Asia Tour: A Reflection of Political Realism Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui I2U2: The Aspects and the Prospects Ishani Agnihotri Jeddah Summit for Security and Development: Aspects and Prospects Arshad The Greco - Turkish dispute over the Aegean Sea Aashriti Gautam Return of Netanyahu to Power: An Assessment Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui Istanbul Blast and its Implications: An Overview Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui CENTRAL ASIA Unprecedented Situation in Kazakhstan: Causes & Implications Athar Zafar India - Central Asia Summit: A Milestone in Engagement with the Region Athar Zafar Election in Turkmenistan: Continuity or Change ? Punit Gaur China’s Growing Engagement with Central Asia Gunjan Sidana Tajikistan Strengthens Cooperation with Partners to Address Security Challenges Athar Zafar A Perspective on Fourth Consultative Meeting in Central Asia Punit Gaur AFRICA The Return of Instability to the Horn of Africa Sankalp Gurjar Mali and the Great Power Politics in Africa Sankalp Gurjar Ethiopia Starts Electricity Generation at GERD: An Assessment Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah Al - Sisi’s Visit to China: An Assessment Arshad Political Journey of Tunisia under President Saied: An Assessment Arshad Can Africa Emerge as a Viable Alternative to Russian Gas Exports for Europe ? Kaushik Nag The New American Strategy for Africa Amidst the Intensifying Great Power Politics Sankalp Gurjar Constitutional Referendum in Tunisia: An Overview Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui The Conflict in Ethiopia and the Regional(In) Security in the Horn of Africa Sankalp Gurjar William Ruto’s Presidency: What is in Store ? Gauri Narain Mathur Political Stalemate in Libya Ishani Agnihotri RUSSIA AND EUROPE A lookback on Angela Merkel’s 16 years as the German Chancellor Akanksha Thakur Russia’s Diplomacy in the India - US - China Triangle Himani Pant One Year of Brexit—Where do things Stand? Ankita Dutta Lavrov’s Visit to India Himani Pant Reactions to the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill Ankita Dutta The Politics of Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Aashriti Gautam Understanding the Sweden Elections 2022 Monika Gupta First Summit of the European Political Community: Key Takeaways Monika Gupta The Growing Relevance of Eurasian Economic Union for Russia Himani Pant US, LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Year that Was: India - US Relations in 2021 Stuti Banerjee Towards a New Constitution in Chile - challenges for President Elect Gabriel Boric Arnab Chakrabarty One Year of Biden Presidency Stuti Banerjee Biden’s Executive Order to Split Frozen Afghan Funds between Relief and 9 / 11 Victims Anwesha Ghosh US - China Relations under President Joe Biden Teshu Singh Argentina’s recent outreach towards the PRC Arnab Chakrabarty India and Canada Economic Ties: Re - Launching the Free Trade Agreement Stuti Banerjee India and the Caribbean: Building Cooperation to Address Climate Change Challenge Stuti Banerjee Analysis of the NATO’s Madrid Summit Ankita Dutta President Biden’s Middle East Conundrum Stuti Banerjee India and Peru: Building a Future Ready Partnership Stuti Banerjee The ‘New Left’ and its Coming to Power in Latin America Stuti Banerjee AUSTRALIA AND OCEANIA One Ocean Summit and its Implications Sripathi Narayanan 2nd Modi - Morrison Summit: Augmenting India - Australia Strategic Partnership in the Indo - Pacific Pragya Pandey Great Power Maneuvering and Geopolitical Shifts in the South Pacific Pragya Pandey Defence and Security Cooperation: Key Pillars of the India - Australia Partnership It is Okay No change Pragya Pandey Crisis for Pacific Regionalism as Kiribati Withdraws from the Pacific Island Forum(PIF) Pragya pandey US - Pacific Island Country Summit and Pacific Partnership Strategy: An Assessment Pragya Pandey MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS 5th BIMSTEC Summit Sripathi Narayanan Growing Significance of Iran’s Chabahar Port for Landlocked SCO Nations Athar Zafar WANA Countries Eye BRICS Membership Lakshmi Priya Potential of Financial Diversification Led by BRICS Jaiveer Singh SCO Samarkand Summit and India’s Chairmanship: A Perspective Athar Zafar Gulf Countries and the SCO Expansion Lakshmi Priya ASEAN and its Quest for Energy Resilience and Security Temjenmeren Ao MIGRATION Need for a Migration and Mobility Track in India’s G20 Presidency Surabhi Singh Formalising Skills, Encouraging Mobility: A Case Study of Sri Lanka’s Skills Passport and Bahrain’s New Work Permit Oonmona Das EU’s Border Externalisation Approach: The Case of EU - Egypt Cooperation on Border Management Gatha Nautiyal Index